Conditions of Multicrisis: Trends and Changes in Selected Global and National Risk Assessments in 2020–2025MENTS IN 2020–2025

Abstract

The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of global and national risk assessments conducted between 2020 and 2025, covering the period of the multi-crisis associated with the COVID-19 pan-demic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine, within the broader context of climate change. The study aims to identify how these phenomena affected the structure, perception, and hierarchy of risks at both global and national levels, as well as approaches to systemic security. A qualitative comparative analysis of the World Economic Forum Global Risks Reports and National Crisis Management Plans was applied, supported by an interpretation of trends and their convergence. The findings indicate a shift in the threat hierarchy, with climate-related risks paving the way to geopolitical, social, and technological risks. The researched multi-crises trig-gered cascading systemic effects, including economic and informational destabilization and the weakening of international cooperation. The analysis shows approximately 80% convergence, particularly in the areas of en-vironmental risks, geopolitics, technology, and systemic resilience. In Poland, new strategic threats such as mass migration and increased terrorism risk are emerging, while globally, inter-state armed conflict and rising social polarization have become key challenges. The results highlight the need for a systemic and multidimensional approach and the development of adaptive capacities and resilience governance.