Hybrid Threats in the Context of Rebellion Wars Against NATO States in the Baltic Sea Region

Abstract

The article presents selected factors destabilizing international security, grouped within hy-brid threats towards selected NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region, based on the concept of rebellious wars by J. Messner. The geographical limitations introduced by the author are necessary due to the wide and varied scope of impact of aggression using hybrid methods on NATO member states. Searching for answers to the question of what methods of hybrid operations we are currently dealing with in the Baltic Sea region, based on the concept of rebellious wars, the literature on the subject, media information and official statements and views of experts dealing with international security issues were analyzed. The as-sumptions of the concept of rebel wars and an outline of tools regarding hybrid threats towards NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region are presented. The conclusion, preceded by a research procedurę consisting of logical analysis, abstraction, classification and inference, allows for a preliminary capture of the undertaken research goals against the background of the synthetic characteristics of the described hy-brid threats. The results of the conducted research indicate that Messner's concept is a prototype for modern hybrid wars and a reference point for a better understanding of this phenomenon. Moreover, selected Baltic Sea countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Poland) within NATO are currently not fully pre-pared to counter hybrid threats. This results not only from the complexity of the threats, but also from the difficulty of their unambiguous recognition and classification. At the same time, the author directs the attention of researchers dealing with this issue to the need to discuss the directions of NATO's development and develop an appropriate strategy adapted to the nature of hybrid threats, which will allow the Alliance to assume responsibility for the security of its members.