INVESTMENT RISK MANAGEMENT BASED ON QUOTATIONS OF OIL COMPANIES, OIL AND DOLLAR

Abstract

With the non-random movement of the prices of exchange trading objects in mind, by means of the methods and tools of chaos theory, it is possible to show that price changes are subject to the laws of deterministic chaos. This is a new look at this subject compared to the statistical methods that have been used for years, which in most cases assume that the distribution of the rate of returns of the examined series is normal. The aim of the study is to determine the nature of the changes in oil, dollar and Polish fuel prices: whether they are random or determined. In addition, the second aim is to investigate the cause and effect relationship between the price changes of the above-mentioned stocks. Tools such as rescaled range analysis, mean and variance stability analysis and technical analysis will be used. Conclusions resulting from the examination of the three indicated values should be interesting for capital market participants. The article ends with a short-term forecast for WIG-oil&gas.